47% of all jobs will be lost through automation fuelled by AI... by doifeellucky

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· @doifeellucky ·
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47% of all jobs will be lost through automation fuelled by AI...
![image.png](https://files.steempeak.com/file/steempeak/doifeellucky/4YqpgZL4-image.png)
[IMG SRC](https://pixabay.com/illustrations/man-face-facial-expression-body-845847/)

This number, 47% of jobs will be obsolete due to AI automation made headlines 6 years ago when a group of scientists sifted through the data of US laborers to come up with a little more than an educated guess.

A little later in 2016 this article here [47% of jobs in the next 25 years will disappear"](https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/47-of-jobs-in-the-next-25-years-will-disappear-according-to-oxford-university) looked at this.

Who will be subject to this AI revolution in terms of job loss risk? Blue collar or white collar workers? 

Interestingly some researchers believe that first a foremost repetitive analytic white color jobs might be more in danger than tasks/jobs where a hand eye coordination with manipulation of physical objects is required. So, blue collar jobs may be safer a little longer. But also here the improvements in this field of AI and robotics are stunning!

Some argue that they've done the research to look at job losses in the past due to automation or general technical improvements.

Looking at the last 40 years they point at the army's of secretaries or telephone operators and so on we used to have everywhere, or look at the first wave of automation especially in the automobile industry that lead to some dramatic changes especially in the USA were a middle class of workers could afford to live a nice lifestyle with buying houses, having multiple cars, travelling and sending their kids to college.

Now just take a look at Detroit and some other cities that used to bloom til these automation changes tore through the jobs in the automobile industry.

Other's say that a look at history to understand where we will go from here only is valid if you don't compare apples with pears. More precisely if you look at multiple repetitions of similar events.

So only a few things had maybe a similar magnitude as the AI revolution. 

In this regard I've heard these 3 here would qualify and I agree!:

  * Steam engines
  * electricity 
  * and the computer revolution


Why is that?

"Because the AI revolution is fundamentally replacing our cognitive process in doing a job in it's significance entirely, and it can do it dramatically better!"

Kai-Fu Lee AI scientist

So, surely the industrial revolution at the end of the 19th century had an quite big impact on everything as an example.

Over the course of 9 decades it had an massive, negative effect on the living standards of the workers.

Alike we find similar consequences due to the first automation wave that started in the early 70ties in the automobile industry.

Things for all of us will change dramatically and probably much faster than we expect.

These ~50% of jobs that are at risk in the next 25 years is an rather conservative guess.

I personally think that we'll see a much faster impact on the job market and to be quite honest I do not have the slightest idea how we will handle this once the masses that will loose their jobs stand on the streets. 

Although happening for completely different reasons what we've seen in France with the yellow vest movement for example or the turmoil that Venezuela is in right now or Hong Kong... these all seem rather small compared to what could happen when 50% of the workforce isn't needed anymore... seemingly with the blink of an eye.

Maybe it'll be the already discussed automation- or "robot-tax" that will help to cover for an model like the "universal basic income" that you can hear about a lot in the last 5 years.

---

A nice 360 degree look at AI and it's implications, politically, sociologically and economically is this relatively new documentary I've seen the other day!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dZ_lvDgevk

---

_One thing seems clear to me... we're sooo not ready for this!_

_So, what do you think?_

_Is your job at risk?_

_What are your plans for these developments?_

_Am I completely wrong with my concerns and all will be good?_

_Let me know down in the comments please!_

_Cheers!_
_Lucky_




πŸ‘  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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@pedrobrito2004 ·
I think you are right that the evolution of technology and the social and economic transformations that produce these advances are things that we cannot escape, the loss of jobs is one of the unpleasant consequences that has already been seen with other historical cases, such as the creation of large looms, steam engines and the massification of electricity.

Now, rather than considering it a loss of jobs, I think they fit more into the idea of ​​an evolution of the needs of the economic system in terms of human resources, so if a human resource cannot adjust to progress, it is discarded or set aside by the system. I know it sounds cruel, but this reality is a cold and ruthless thing, it has no mercy for the elements it doesn't need.

So, if AI is massively implanted, it is certain that it will occupy many niches in the labor market and will cause many current jobs to be obsolete. If the ruling classes do not take measures so that the population is trained and manages to build responses to this future, then we will surely have a lot of social tension and possibly notable conflicts.

By the way, the Venezuelan case is something so peculiar that I do not believe that as an example for almost any other case, after all, I have had to see it from the inside and it seems that so many errors in political, economic and social measures were a lethal cocktail of ineptitude , excessive corruption and some psychopathic impulse to want to kill as many people as possible.

I wonder if my job is at risk? Well, if I think it is, I work in teaching, but I'm from an old generation and I know that an expert system with a good chatbot module and user-friendly programming could answer many of the questions that are presented to my students, as well or better than I would, maybe. Of course, I am told that the part of the empathy necessary for interaction and the stimulus for learning is something very human and that there still people like me will be necessary ... but, I don't have so much confidence in that, after all, a Good system can even simulate that, so an AI can learn to do it too.

Am I ready to lose my job? In part, no. Although I am not totally lost, because providing advice would still be within my field of capabilities and future possibilities.
πŸ‘  
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@doifeellucky · (edited)
Hello @pedrobrito2004,

thanks for your comment! 

I agree with all that you write here 100%. 

I am quite sure that it must be obvious to "the ruling class" (tbh I thought a little longer about this classification til I had to nod) what is in front of us all. 

But I also know that social/political and for the most part economical change and adjustment is slow. Everything that exceeds an time horizon of a few years isn't so much in the focus of those in power now, be it an politician who's self preservation mechanisms prohibit to engage in issues beyond his legislation period or far beyond the next elections, if he's active in a democracy at least, or an CEO to go against money to be made right now in contrast to things that would take a few years to unfold.

That's why I think that the AI development in China became so scary fast in the last 5 years. The ruling class that is in place just decides upon what needs to happen and that's that. They support big tech and big commerce as long as they stay in line with the political agenda of the rulers. This lead too this treasure trove of data which is ever increasing, not at last due to their disregard of privacy idea's in general, the life blood of every AI development.

This is why the west and especially the US will have a hard time to keep their front runner position in this field. They US already are pretty lax when it comes to enforcing privacy besides in some niches like HIPAA (health care data regulations) but still no par to China!

"If data is the new Gold than China is the new Saudi Arabia!" was said in this documentation that I was referring too and I think this is true!

When people think about threats introduced by AI the all fall into that "Skynet Terminator" thing. 

Even if this also is (in terms of FAW/LAW) a real possibility and danger... for the moment the clear and present danger comes from the social economic changes that AI will introduce to all mankind.  

At last, to reflect on the own, personal consequences of these AI driven, worldwide changes is tough, but I think it's good advice for everyone to reflect a little on that!

Like you came to the conclusion that your job might be at risk I come to the same result when I look at my occupation right now!

There are already AI driven cyber security defense systems in the wild! When it comes to awareness training, IT security training which is at least 30% of my job as information security officer the same class of expert systems that already start to replace others, even or especially with academic backgrounds, like lawyers for instance, could make my work in this regard obsolete pretty "soonish" I guess.

The last field of expertise that the AI maybe will need for a while will be the implementation and further training were maybe in some parts my advice would be of some merit to it.

In my field of expertise IT security this is especially weird I guess because right now this field is placed in the job market as "THE thing to do" for the young digital natives. 

And it's true, right now we have so many open positions in this field, and it's hard to find experts.

I'm pretty sure this demand will die down in the next 5-10 years because there's a better choice available. 

_It works 24/7, doesn't demand a wage and constant raises, no sick days, no holidays and is way more competent than all of the human information security specialists together._ 

Cheers!
Lucky
πŸ‘  
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@pedrobrito2004 · (edited)
Some time ago I wrote a post on these topics, in part it was born from a long response that I gave to a colleague in one of his posts. I wrote it in Spanish, but (despite the deficiencies in grammar and other things) with a little help from the translator it is understood: [Artificial Intelligence and Human Possibilities](https://pedrobrito2004.000webhostapp.com/language/en/2019/09/artificial-and-human-possibility-intelligence)

There is a section towards the end of the post that is the one I want to highlight, it said:
<h1>
>**And the future of Humans?**</h1>
>
>What will happen to humans before this? I am not so sure that they take it in a good way, after all, the story I know of my species is not very sweet, it is enough for me to remember that with the Industrial Revolution, a lot of jobs became obsolete and many unprepared workers they fell into a state of terrible misery, in some cases they attacked the factories that had the new equipment and resisted the technical advance, but everything was useless, simply that generation suffered the change of world and suffered in terrible agony and misery.<center>
![](https://fromliverpooltomanchester.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/blog-2.jpg?w=1140)
[Source of Image - post in Spanish](https://fromliverpooltomanchester.wordpress.com/2013/03/08/la-pobreza-en-la-revolucion-industrial-inglesa/)
</center>
>
>I think that by reducing available jobs and increasing AI their capabilities, even having a sensitive capacity for aesthetics, social problems will be inevitable, but they will not stop the future, they will simply be the death of a dying group.

πŸ‘  
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@crypto.piotr ·
I just bumped into this comment a moment ago @doifeellucky.
Seriously great read. Love how responsive you are.

Yours, Piotr
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@crypto.piotr ·
what an amazing comment @pedrobrito2004
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@pedrobrito2004 ·
<center>![](https://artsandcraftsbusiness.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/thanks-for-your-comments-blue.jpg)
[Source of pic](https://artsandcraftsbusiness.com/how-to-get-more-comments-on-your-blog/)</center>
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@crypto.piotr ·
Hi @doifeellucky

Finally I managed to find some time to read your publications. Solid read. Upvoted already.

When I think about future I'm also wondering how many jobs will be lost because of current technology advancement. Obviously there will be most likely many more jobs created. However millions of people out there will not be able to adapt quickly enough.

I've learned a bit about industrial revolution and about common fear, that machines will take over all human jobs. And it did kind of happen (to some degree). At the same time many more jobs (which didn't exist then) has been created and somehow population didn't struggle as much. 

But they had time. Entire decade to adapt. With current speed of technology advacement it may not be the case any more.

My bet is that jobs which require customer service will be bloosoming. New singapore airport is an example of it. Everything fully automatized and stuff (airport stuff at the counter, immigration, airline stuff around boarding gate) has been there with one purpose: to make you (client) feel comfortable and safe.

Automated job surely will be in danger. Especially within large companies (which can afford to inplement new solutions).

Yours, Piotr
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@doifeellucky ·
Dear Piotr,

thanks for your comment! 

---

_First let me say the following... I'm very happy about every feedback, discourse I get in response to my publications! It shows that especially the people that are involved with @project.hope are very willing to engage in comments and discourse and that they bring a lot of skills and knowledge to the table! I absolutely love this!_ ❀️

_So, thank you and everybody else involved with @project.hope!_ πŸ™

---

I agree that especially in the service sector there might be some room for expansion for human workers!

What makes me think that things will be more rough and abrupt when it comes to the AI revolution is, that the industrial revolution for instance needed much new infrastructure to built up to until things were going in the "job killing" direction at mass.

This will be different for AI in many cases!

Of course, when it comes to the manipulation of the physical world things still look like they are stuck on the clumsy, funny level. But also here the development cycles do speed up a lot on a daily basis.

I'm afraid things will go in the disruptive state very fast and we haven't managed to even discuss 5% of all the implications that this will have on the social economic sphere, worldwide!

So, I still believe that we have to get the masses into looking at this rapidly expanding and evolving space that we have at least a slim chance of buffering the impacts on us all, a little at least.

Cheers!
Lucky
πŸ‘  
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@crypto.piotr ·
Thanks for your prompt reply @doifeellucky

To tell you the truth, I've learned to value your presence and I'm glad you're becoming closer to @project.hope. Not to mention that content you're publishing is simply worth reading. 

> What makes me think that things will be more rough and abrupt when it comes to the AI revolution is, that the industrial revolution for instance needed much new infrastructure to built up to until things were going in the "job killing" direction at mass.
> This will be different for AI in many cases!

Very true. 3-5 years and market will be absolutely flooded with products and services that are backed up by AI.
People will have very little time to adapt and many will surely lose their jobs.

ps.
May I ask you for little favour? I'm not sure if I did ask you about it already or not (hope I'm not repeating myself). 

Could you please check out also my recent post if you have few min and share your thoughts on questions related to concept of "introducing steem blockchain to businesses":
https://steemit.com/steemleo/@crypto.piotr/my-very-first-trip-to-switzerland-one-of-the-most-crypto-and-blockchain-friendly-place-on-the-planet-earth

Your feedback is always appreciated ;) And I will upvote most valuable comment with 100-200k SP coming from project.hope account.
Yours, Piotr
πŸ‘  
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