Unemployment is at a 50 year low and the stock market is at an all time high. The NASDAQ just crossed 9,000 for the first time today. So how can anyone think about recession? The truth is recessions start to crop up when there are plenty of signs to the contrary. From the perspective I mentioned, things look good in the United States. ![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfWCz5W4rPh1NB7Rj9hxzfgyxmbhsg2TVmxr6gK9hBhnz/image.png) <center>[Source](https://kwhs.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/recession-ahead.jpg)</center> That, however, is only through one prism. There are other issues that we must look at. For example, it is hard to ignore the track record of the inverted yield curve. As an indicator of a recession, it has a rather successful track record. Usually, within 12-18 months of appearing, a recession takes hold. This would put it in 2020. We also have an earnings recession that might be entering its 4th quarter in a row. Earnings are down across the board with the exception of a few companies. This is being masked because of stock buybacks. One thing that cannot be masked is the fact that the top line, for most companies, is on a downward trend, something that started as far back as 2016. The President and Congress pushed through tax cuts to corporations on the promise this would lead to higher growth. That did not happen. Instead, we are watching growth slowing in the United States, one of the few promising economies around the world. With an election next year, we are going to see a campaign to reverse a lot of what Trump did. Tax cuts, regulation, and the tariff situation would most likely be reversed if one of the Democrats gets elected. While that person would not be in office in 2020, the campaign might through uncertainty into the laps of investors. What will be the tipping point is always unknown. Investors operate better when there is a large degree of certainty surrounding the macro situation. This is not present. Much of the "smart" money is still on the sidelines. The European bank situation, which I wrote about on a few occasions, still is sitting out there. If the American economy were to slow, for whatever reason, this likely would send unemployment up. The fallout throughout the economy would end up being a self perpetuating machine. As unemployment rises, the payout of benefits hits. This is coupled with a loss in tax revenue. Consumers start to slow their spending as defaults on existing debt rises. With an economy that is 70% made up by the consumer, this is fatal. The impact of quantitative easing around the world is slowing. This is the challenge with trying to keep things "propped" up. That said, after such a strong bull run, a bit of clearing out is inevitable. 2020 could be the year where things turn south. President Trump is, obviously, going to do all he can to keep things going until after the November election. Can he do it? Time will tell. There are some green sprouts to point to, the biggest being the stock market. The companies that are doing well are showing strong growth. This is something that can be paraded out there by a politician. Will it be enough? Check back in November. ___ If you found this article informative, please give an upvote and resteem. ![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmPvBkjBFuAKHQR7MacQ1679NryWNG5ZexgaPZdUmTo4so) ![image.png](https://ipfs.busy.org/ipfs/QmYRwbaYkV7kubaAqefvGi6kxW25EdzUdZRP8XWsRWXKTj) <hr><center>Posted via <a href="https://steemleo.com/">Steemleo</a> | A Decentralized Community for Investors </center>
post_id | 82,867,655 |
---|---|
author | taskmaster4450le |
permlink | likelihood-of-a-recession-in-2020 |
category | hive-167922 |
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fredkese.pal | 0 | 0 | 5.75% | ||
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damla.leo | 0 | 66,250,022 | 50% | ||
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laputis.neoxag | 0 | 41,194,629 | 23% | ||
pouchon.tribes | 0 | 90,910,295,118 | 100% | ||
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neoxvoter | 0 | 77,603,550 | 1.5% | ||
chireerocks.leo | 0 | 552,310,296 | 100% | ||
toni.pal | 0 | 0 | 1.44% |
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image. [![](https://s18.postimg.org/51o0kpijd/play200x46.png)](http://ec2-52-72-169-104.compute-1.amazonaws.com/taskmaster4450le__likelihood-of-a-recession-in-2020.mp3) Brought to you by [@tts](https://steemit.com/tts/@tts/introduction). If you find it useful please consider upvoting this reply.
post_id | 82,867,759 |
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author | tts |
permlink | re-likelihood-of-a-recession-in-2020-20191227t024148 |
category | hive-167922 |
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>Unemployment is at a 50 year low Itβs counterintuitive, but in the past extremely low unemployment rates have tended to be harbingers of deep recessions. And current low rates are happening at the same time that the workforce participation rates are *also* low.
post_id | 82,867,775 |
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author | preparedwombat |
permlink | q35gw9 |
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There is no place to go but up. Companies filled their employment coffers and a slight downturn in revenues means layoffs ensure. Not a pretty sign for the economy over the next couple of years. <hr><center>Posted via <a href="https://steemleo.com/">Steemleo</a> | A Decentralized Community for Investors </center>
post_id | 82,885,656 |
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author | taskmaster4450le |
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root_title | "Likelihood Of A Recession In 2020" |
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Congratulations @taskmaster4450le! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) : <table><tr><td><img src="https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@taskmaster4450le/payout.png?201912270339"></td><td>You received more than 1000 as payout for your posts. Your next target is to reach a total payout of 2000</td></tr> </table> <sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@taskmaster4450le) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=taskmaster4450le)_</sub> <sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub> To support your work, I also upvoted your post! ###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!
post_id | 82,868,769 |
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author | steemitboard |
permlink | steemitboard-notify-taskmaster4450le-20191227t035356000z |
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created | 2019-12-27 03:53:57 |
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If you look at this website, they track the daily announcement of company layoffs.......The numbers are in the thousands, wait until after the retail layoffs show up in the numbers https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/ <hr><center>Posted via <a href="https://steemleo.com/">Steemleo</a> | A Decentralized Community for Investors </center>
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author | rollingthunder |
permlink | q35p0e |
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rollingthunder | 0 | 34,200,861,806 | 100% | ||
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Yeah the entire situation is not all sunshine and butterflies. There are a lot of reasons to be leery of the jobs numbers. One of the biggest, in my opinion, is they are garbage jobs that were mostly created. <hr><center>Posted via <a href="https://steemleo.com/">Steemleo</a> | A Decentralized Community for Investors </center>
post_id | 82,885,647 |
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author | taskmaster4450le |
permlink | q36por |
category | hive-167922 |
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leo.curator | 0 | 23,667,839 | 2% |