BTC - a view from the Mountain - 2018 December by famunger

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bitcoin · @famunger ·
$10.52
BTC - a view from the Mountain - 2018 December
# BTC - a view from the Mountain
![Depositphotos_13743211_xl-2015.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWiAScFQXjxVdUu1dQeaB9vDsAMM4m4P4GRabCwRRH1cC/Depositphotos_13743211_xl-2015.jpg)

## Blog news
- Design to be optimized
- Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.

## Performance statistic
### monthly performance:
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 13.29.40.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeZpL9yrYiTexRas5gQ6fuGTEDJtncdD7ya7rCFzmMwoC/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2013.29.40.png)
December also not good to BTC investor even though we saw a rally up from mid of December. January is typically a bad month for BTC - we this be inverse this time like Nov + Dec were?

### quarterly/half-yearly/yearly performance
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 13.29.12.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbv99yRPMSz7rrQ3pMKqEKs1sfoi5QcVUHzJfUYqkZHXR/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2013.29.12.png)
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.

## Trend indicator
### consensio
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.00.59.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdTuLQUuh1dk5sQsjjisCJMsXmYMSjyaoUq2StTx7zCt7/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.00.59.png)
Changed the MAs to 7 / 14 / 30
Full Bear market indicated

### Heikin Ashi - monthly
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.25.00.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZVPYkActkBVopxbEPuEezKBXWv8bnNJYrwgLuPKKJhw5/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.25.00.png)
Strong bear Mode


## Value indicator
### NVT ratio/signal
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.05.00.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmekNVj928VKtTUNxNA31kDiGExdXtgGsgVHpZvV45VvaT/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.05.00.png)
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.01.54.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUnJwVoQAgN4W6peiZXYHXBF8HkSnW1GzoGAtYfenCyqf/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.01.54.png)

Valuation: 114 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal retested 100 moving down.
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/

### Mayer multiple
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.08.17.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYSaZpdMTAv45VxAe18CqULuDkkmNvnWy917AoWbVHfbH/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.08.17.png)
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.09.05.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX18vRS5s4ChHnscGGLeTV5MeJNe43AHMAPK15sR1UojA/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.09.05.png)

- strong buy -
Below 2.4 x the MA 200 = buy signal.
https://mayermultiple.info/

## Activity / Momentum indicator
### Network momentum
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.36.32.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZteqbupy3Zw32RTgRzUsJxUuWXtgve73xshYkGRPWN4X/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.36.32.png)
Trending up - peaked and is back at around 150'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for). The peak is probably explained by coinbase reorganizing cold storage (8% of all bitcoin were moved).


### active adresses
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.18.12.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRe3DrvTGmE7HdTsE2Bqjn7ss1k5p8PB5Lm3PCwuKThqa/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.18.12.png)
slightly going down - more people capitulating?
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days

### transactions per day
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.15.39.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRjHaG7t2UgADomJ1xqyatEv7VzRLWd4qrh2RgPssJSMM/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.15.39.png)
uptrend - reastablished. Looks strong - with around 300'000 transactions about 75% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-transactions

### Google search BTC USD
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.13.27.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXJcjmo58CNHSZhKDQmkB7ZB9hHPoFxVqviya6qYEbcsp/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.13.27.png)
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.13.54.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcZYVCQYGz6Cd6XL8KeVP8nBVudG6jztnTPkAcXH6cfU5/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.13.54.png)
10 % of ATH - slightly trending up (see last 90 days chart).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=btc%20usd

## BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related
### Hash rate
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.10.28.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX1AybUnox3wxhjgB9rK7q38pmHtPB8myJ57TFTcqdLyf/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.10.28.png)
Hashrate is stabilizing.

### Difficulty
![Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.11.12.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTYjPaK6gLXgAd8QpMGUS4oD95SD2wj6mcLZfQvUitiWy/Bildschirmfoto%202019-01-01%20um%2014.11.12.png)
Moving up slightly - first time since 6'000 failed.

## Overall picture and scenarios
### Woo Bull
A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.
![DtcnaIjXoAACwgj.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTww3YsEEP4VRQ1UkxUFw9JtEpV5aD7PhFb98U1fi1FGp/DtcnaIjXoAACwgj.jpg)

### Passion-Ground
And another scenario from my friend @passion-ground. He put this together quite some time ago as viable option and it seems this becomes reality. Interesting to see that it could match with the scenario of woo bull.
![BTC - 11-27-2018  Bear Market Update.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVDMBvvtgFvUeJQ2yUrs7is7qwGfk61C42knAcsFZhigY/BTC%20-%2011-27-2018%20%20Bear%20Market%20Update.png)

### Old chart log scale
![Bitcoin-Chart.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSyxiQGtKAAjfyVHL6BG4M6rctdMZPiRxDfZJ2WU8n9X4/Bitcoin-Chart.png)
I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the *insane* looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214). 
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??
👍  , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and 179 others
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vote details (243)
@passion-ground ·
$0.02
Great big-picture breakdown to start the New Year!
Thanks for the shout out, brother - hope you had a great Holiday!
👍  
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@famunger · 
Yes I did. Hope you did as well. Thanks for your appreciated feedback my friend. Let me know if you would think any other aspect would add value!
👍  
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@freiheit50 · 
Thank you very much for this report!

My opinion:

* New ATH in 2020
* Let's be patient!
* Never sell your precious coins!

Beside the chance of becoming "rich" - Holding BTC (and gold) is a clear denial of our ill monetary system.
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@famunger · 
Absolutely - Love your view.
👍  
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@rosethiyada · 
Happy new year @famunger. I am glad to come back to upvote you nice post agian.
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@famunger · 
Happy new year Rosethiyada. Where are you at the moment?
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@rosethiyada · 
I am still in Norway. I will go back home on March. So excited!
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@joythewanderer · 
Happy new year ^^
Wish you and family a great 2019 ahead. 

>Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!?

Let's hope it does then!
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@famunger · 
Happy new year Joy - in deed - hope remains. Are you still traveling?
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@joythewanderer · 
Just came back in Belgium now.
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@steemitboard · 
Congratulations @famunger! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/60x70/http://steemitboard.com/@famunger/votes.png?201901052043</td><td>You made more than 12000 upvotes. Your next target is to reach 13000 upvotes.</td></tr>
</table>

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